The Inevitable Endgame for Uber’s Robotaxi “Small Business” Idea

Uber just dropped a wild stat: the average Waymo robotaxi is already doing more trips per day than 99% of human Uber drivers. On paper, that’s huge. And if they roll this out right, it could look like a win-win for them and for “small business” owners.

Here’s the version they could pitch:

You buy or lease a self-driving car from Uber or one of their partners. It’s your asset. You keep it maintained, keep it clean, and split the revenue with Uber, just like drivers do now. You’re basically running a micro-franchise — except the “driving” part is automated.

Sounds good, right? A way to own something that earns money without you being in the seat.

But here’s the thing: the second that model proves it works, it’s not going to stay in the hands of individuals for long. Bigger players will see the math, raise a ton of capital, and scoop up dozens or hundreds of cars at once. They’ll run them as proper fleets, with centralized maintenance, scheduling, and all the efficiency that one person with one or two cars just can’t match.

Fast forward a few years, and Uber’s network probably isn’t a bunch of independent “owner-operators” anymore. It’s regional fleet companies acting as subcontractors. Different names, same basic setup: Uber on top, someone else taking the operational risk.

If you’re an individual who gets in early, maybe you make good money before the consolidation hits. But the long-term play here? It’s going to be fleets — not people — that own most of those cars.

That’s the funny part: AVs might kill the driver role entirely, but the business structure on Uber’s side could stay exactly the same.

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